SPC Forecast
RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 6 19:57:01 UTC 2012.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 6 19:57:01 UTC 2012.
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY
ESEWD OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED REINFORCING SURGE
OF CONTINENTAL AIR SPREADS SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. FARTHER
S...A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM S FL WWD ACROSS THE
SRN GULF OF MEXICO. LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL/S
FL WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING
THE DAY AS EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA EJECT EWD OVER N FL. FARTHER W...
A MOISTENING WAA PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER S TX TOMORROW
NIGHT. THE LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTENING COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
WEAK INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE LIGHTNING RISK APPEARS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME.
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 33 N AND 134 W IS FORECAST TO DIG
SEWD JUST OFF THE SRN CA/NRN BAJA COAST TOMORROW. THE RICHEST
MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...AND WEAK
OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT THE PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY INLAND. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONFIRM ONLY MINIMAL
BUOYANCY IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER...WITH RELATIVELY WARM EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL HEIGHTS. THUS...THE PROSPECTS FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION INLAND
APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT MAINTAINING A TSTM OUTLOOK AREA FOR
COASTAL SRN CA.
..THOMPSON.. 02/06/2012
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST MON FEB 06 2012
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON...
A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS NOW CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE EN ROUTE TO
THE S CENTRAL TX. ASCENT AND WEAK BUOYANCY ROOTED NEAR OR ABOVE THE
700 MB PRESSURE LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
...CENTRAL/S FL THIS AFTERNOON...
A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT ALONG AND S OF A
SLOW-MOVING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THE MOST VIGOROUS
LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR REMAINED JUST OFF THE E
CENTRAL FL COAST...BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING WILL RESULT
IN STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A DECREASE IN THE ALREADY
MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
...SW CO THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SW CO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED
MIDLEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND
MINIMAL BUOYANCY SUGGEST THAT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE UNLIKELY WITH
THIS CONVECTION.
..THOMPSON.. 02/06/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012/
...FL PENINSULA...
LATE MORNING COMPOSITE SATELLITE/SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA
OF LOWER PRESSURE/INVERTED TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE FL
STRAITS VICINITY. THIS AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE...AND A RESIDUAL
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GULF NEWD INTO THE
NRN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. POCKETS OF HEATING
WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS /PW 1.75 INCHES PER 12Z S FL RAOBS/ WILL
YIELD WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION /UPWARDS OF 250-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE/--PERHAPS ENOUGH TO YIELD A STRONG WIND GUST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...NEGATING
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS AND THE INCLUSION OF LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.
...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TX/NRN MEXICO WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM CLOSED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MEAGER INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE /BASED NEAR 600 MB/ MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE RISK FOR A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTN.
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0958 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012
VALID 061630Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL PENINSULA...
LATE MORNING COMPOSITE SATELLITE/SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA
OF LOWER PRESSURE/INVERTED TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE FL
STRAITS VICINITY. THIS AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE...AND A RESIDUAL
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GULF NEWD INTO THE
NRN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. POCKETS OF HEATING
WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS /PW 1.75 INCHES PER 12Z S FL RAOBS/ WILL
YIELD WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION /UPWARDS OF 250-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE/--PERHAPS ENOUGH TO YIELD A STRONG WIND GUST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...NEGATING
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS AND THE INCLUSION OF LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.
...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TX/NRN MEXICO WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM CLOSED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MEAGER INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE /BASED NEAR 600 MB/ MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE RISK FOR A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTN.
..SMITH.. 02/06/2012
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012
VALID 061700Z - 071200Z
...FAR SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS DOWNSLOPE SELY WINDS STRENGTHENING TO
15-20 MPH OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AID IN RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING /WITH RH
VALUES POTENTIALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS/...AND COULD RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..GARNER.. 02/06/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WILL BEGIN TO PHASE OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST...QUICKLY DEAMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THE
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS A STAGNANT
UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A LONGER
WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES SWWD TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. ALTHOUGH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
LINGER OVER SRN CA...THE RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE MOISTURE OVER TIME...WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIGHTER FOR
THE COASTAL PLAINS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS GIVEN THE
REDUCTION OF CHANNELING THROUGH THE COASTAL RANGES.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
..GARNER.. 02/06/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FIRE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES. AN
AB/SK SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP SWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING SWD/EWD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICALLY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. FARTHER WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHILE A SRN WAVE DRIFTS SWD
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL IMPROVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ALONG THE WEST COAST STATES...LIMITING FIRE POTENTIAL.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Read more
